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  1. #1

    Default How accurate is the weather forecast???

    Heading to CTI in 7 days - YAY - never been to Jamaica, and we wondering what kind of weather we should expect for Dec.??? I did check weatherchannel.com, they are forecasting rain 2 of the days so far - and we will only be there 4!!! I just wondering if these showers are usually short, or if it's usually yucky all day?? Thanks in advance for the comments!!

  2. #2

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    I would not worry about any weather report. No mater what it says what is the upside. If they predict clear skys and it rains you are there
    if they predict rain and you have clear skys you are there ...
    With the exception of a hurricane ( odd in december) not sure how the accuracy of the extended weather report can have an net positive impact on a preplanned holiday. Go enjoy, and relax

  3. #3

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    Thanks steveandlinda - and great point!!! We will be in JAMAICA!! It really doesnt matter what the weather will be! Cocktails and food will be plenty!!!! 6 days to go! woooo hoooo

  4. #4

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    Try accuweather.com. They were spot on for thanksgiving.

  5. #5

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    Everytime I've gone in December the weather forecast has said "chance of rain/thunderstorms." I've only seen rain a few times and usually just at night or for a few hours in the afternoon. Never been totally rained out. I LOVE going in December!

  6. #6

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    We just came back from CSA and the prediction was for rain just about every day. It rained 2 of the 7 days and for only about an hour and then the sun was out. I had posted here with that question also and MB members assured me not to worry. And they were right. I think the weather will be great! Have fun.

  7. #7

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    December weather is beautiful in Jamaica. If it rains, it will not be for long, maybe an hour tops per day. I am sure it will not rain everyday you are there, I'll bet you will have some consecutive days of sunshine...get excited...don't be worried

  8. #8

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    Weather forecasting in Jamaica is simple........ 78-80 degrees with 30 minutes of rain....... repeat daily......
    Proud palapa hoarder since 2007 !!!

  9. #9

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    Thanks for all the input!!!! 4 days until CTI!!! WOOOO HOOOOOOO

  10. #10

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    Sorry to resurrect an old thread, but before our first trip I was paying lots of attention to the forecast. 10 days out it seemed to bounce around between chance of showers and partly sunny. As arrival approached, it turned into 80-90% chance of rain throughout the week. What we actually got was one or two brief light showers and about 2 hours of rain one evening. Are the predictions typically difficult? This was Negril, btw.

  11. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter&Marti View Post
    Sorry to resurrect an old thread, but before our first trip I was paying lots of attention to the forecast. 10 days out it seemed to bounce around between chance of showers and partly sunny. As arrival approached, it turned into 80-90% chance of rain throughout the week. What we actually got was one or two brief light showers and about 2 hours of rain one evening. Are the predictions typically difficult? This was Negril, btw.
    It's always interesting how an old thread still has relevance.

    In 9 trips, almost 100 days in Jamaica, I can summarize the weather pretty well.

    Every day, it will rain. That's why the forecast always looks the way it does. The only question is at what time, and for how long (usually very brief) - and will it actually hit you.

    In Negril - you can almost set your watch to the rain - usually just after lunch for 30 minutes or so - I have been sitting in Negril during a huge down pour thinking the day is ruined only to find it sunny again in 20 minutes.

    In Ocho Rios - it's quite a bit different - you will get rain, usually in the afternoon as the clouds will start to gather over the mountains - around 4:00 you may hear thunder in the distance - at that point it's just hit or miss - sometimes the clouds will move over the resort - other times they won't. They can start early in the afternoon and be over in 20 minutes or it can ruin sunset in the evening.

    You can also get morning rain in Ocho Rios but this can be a real blessing as it usually means a very sunny afternoon and an amazing sunset in the evening.

    In addition - the resorts in Ocho Rios are several miles east of the city of Ocho Rios (where the weather report is for) - you wouldn't think this makes much of a difference, but you can see the city from Sans Souci and many times there are rain clouds over the city, but the resort is dry.

    Only once did we have a full day of rain and it was in Negril as a tropical storm approached.

    Last year we were in Ocho Rios in November and there were quite a bit of clouds - but very little rain.

    However - unless you know a serious storm is approaching - do not let it change your plans - showers are usually very brief and can be waited out with a quick drink/snack at the bar...

  12. #12

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    I don't think that it's so difficult. It's probably just that pop showers and storms are a real possibility at any point this time of year, but they are usually pretty quick to pass. Half the time you can see showers in the distance in Negril but it will still be nice on the beach, and they don't actually make it to the resort. We typically like to go late June/early July and the weather forecast and actual outcome is always something similar to what you described. I always joke that the forecast is more like 80% chance that you could get a afternoon storm pop up about 50% of the time.
    Last edited by Kyle; May 21st, 2018 at 03:59 PM.

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